Glencore targets more than $5 billion in trading profits

Glencore expects to generate more than $5 billion in profits from its trading business in 2026. If this forecast is confirmed, it would be its best result since the 2022 record, set during the energy crisis triggered by the invasion of Ukraine. This year, the company is benefiting from a market once again disrupted by geopolitical tensions, logistical challenges and price differences between regions.

The Swiss group, which combines commodity trading with mining, attributes this expected performance to changes in crude oil, refined products, gas and freight markets. Disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz have increased transport costs and changed arbitrage opportunities between basins. Copper and coal prices have also supported commercial activity. The issue therefore extends beyond price levels alone: traders can benefit from geographical differentials, delivery costs and buyers' need to secure volumes.

Volatility becomes a revenue driver

Commodity trading involves buying, transporting, storing and reselling products across different markets. A global company can take advantage of differences in prices and availability between regions, but must also manage credit, transport, financing and compliance risks. When supply chains are disrupted, these operations become more complex and potential margins can increase.

The war in Iran and tensions around maritime routes have once again fragmented some energy markets. Available cargoes are not necessarily located where demand is strongest. Journeys can become longer, insurance premiums rise and delivery times become less predictable. Trading companies capable of mobilising ships, inventories, contracts and commercial information then have an advantage. This does not mean their profits are automatically guaranteed: it depends on the quality of their hedging and their ability to limit losses when markets reverse.

Glencore's half-year results illustrate the scale of the improvement. The group reported $10.1 billion in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in the first half, a marked increase from the previous year. This rise reflects all its activities and must not be confused with trading profits alone. The forecast of more than $5 billion concerns the marketing business, which buys and resells commodities on behalf of the group and external clients.

An exceptional result that remains exposed to cycles

The comparison with 2022 highlights these revenues' sensitivity to shocks. The invasion of Ukraine had caused extreme movements in gas, oil, coal and electricity markets. In 2026, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, higher freight costs and increases in certain commodities create a different configuration, but one equally favourable to commercial arbitrage.

The announced profit level cannot, however, be extrapolated indefinitely. Trading margins depend on volatility, but also on liquidity and the ability to move products. If shipping routes return to normal, regional differentials narrow or demand weakens, opportunities can diminish rapidly. High profits also attract more competition and increase scrutiny from investors and authorities over risk exposure.

Glencore said it is targeting annual profits from its marketing business of between $2.8 billion and $4.2 billion from 2027. This range reflects a long-term outlook and remains below the level expected this year. It demonstrates the company's intention to distinguish gains linked to exceptional market conditions from the average performance it believes it can sustain in a more normal environment.

The integrated model strengthens its position

Glencore's presence in both trading and mining production gives it a distinctive position. Its commercial business can draw on relationships with producers, transport companies, refiners and consumers. Physical assets, contracts and infrastructure allow it to meet needs that purely financial operators cannot always satisfy. Conversely, exposure to mines and commodities makes the group sensitive to price declines, project delays and regulatory constraints.

For investors, the profit forecast is therefore a strong signal about the value of the commercial business, but does not capture the group's overall health. Its mining results, costs, debt, investments and ability to convert exceptional revenues into distributions or profitable projects must also be monitored. Trading results can support the balance sheet during a favourable period while temporarily concealing weakness in other segments.

For African producing countries, the strength of international traders can provide markets, logistical solutions and advance financing. These contracts can accelerate the start of production, but their value depends on transparent terms, risk-sharing and the share of the value chain retained locally. Glencore's experience shows the strategic importance of commodity trading: production locations matter, but control over transport, financing and market access can also determine how revenues are distributed.

The forecast of more than $5 billion places Glencore among the major beneficiaries of current volatility. It also serves as a reminder that these revenues are cyclical and linked to crises that weigh on consumers and importing economies. The real test will be the group's ability to maintain profitability when energy and mining markets return to less disorderly conditions.