Gas: Nigeria targets 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2030

Nigeria wants to raise gas production to 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, from around 7.5 billion currently. Reaffirmed by authorities in early October, the objective seeks to turn the country’s reserves into electricity, industrial inputs and export revenues. It is ambitious, but higher production will not be enough: the main challenge will be delivering gas to power stations, factories and markets able to make productive use of it.

Nigeria’s proven reserves are among Africa’s largest. Recent government figures put them at 215,190 billion cubic feet, compared with 208,830 billion in the previous assessment. Abundant resources do not automatically become available supply. Wells, processing facilities, pipelines, purchase contracts and sufficiently reliable payment mechanisms are needed to justify investment.

Production has already recovered from approximately 6.8 billion cubic feet per day recorded in 2023. The remaining gap to the official target is substantial, and the timetable requires projects to accelerate across the chain. Domestic supply, now exceeding two billion cubic feet per day according to figures cited by authorities, represents only part of production. The gap between gas extracted and gas delivered to consumers reveals the importance of exports, losses, flaring and transport limitations.

Domestic needs and gas infrastructure

Domestic needs are considerable. Thermal power stations depend on gas for a significant share of electricity, but fuel shortages and grid constraints contribute to outages. Manufacturers need more consistent energy to operate equipment and remain competitive. Fertilisers and petrochemicals can convert gas into higher-value products, while liquefied natural gas offers an international market. The balance between domestic supply and exports will therefore influence prices and investment.

The Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben pipeline, or OB3, is one of the projects intended to improve gas flows. Once testing and connections are completed, its nominal transport capacity could reach two billion cubic feet per day. Authorities say it could add more than 500 million cubic feet per day to domestic market supply. The Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline, or AKK, is reported to be nearing completion. It would expand gas access in the country’s central and northern regions, particularly for power stations and industry.

These projects illustrate a central point: midstream infrastructure determines gas’s economic impact. A pipeline described as completed must still be tested, connected to operational facilities and supported by offtake contracts. Delays in one link can restrict use of the entire chain. Conversely, a network connecting producing basins to consumption centres can make previously difficult-to-develop fields profitable.

Public financing aims to catalyse private capital. The Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund reportedly mobilised N671 billion, around $434 million, to support 31 projects and 205 assets. The government estimates that these investments could attract nearly N1,600 billion in private capital and add around 475 million standard cubic feet per day to the domestic market once projects are fully operational. These figures indicate the scale of the intended leverage, but delivery will depend on actual project progress and the quality of financial governance.

Investment and the conditions for the 2030 target

The country also aims to attract around $30 billion into the gas sector by 2030. Investors will assess regulatory stability, facility security, price transparency and buyers’ ability to honour contracts. For domestic projects, tariffs must both finance infrastructure and remain affordable for consumers. For exports, global competition and the availability of ships and terminals shape expected revenues.

Flaring and methane emissions represent another test. Increasing production without reducing leaks or capturing associated gas could worsen climate impacts and undermine asset value. Emissions measurement, reduction plans and independent oversight are therefore becoming important for attracting long-term financing. Converting gas into electricity, fertilisers or chemicals can reduce import dependence, but must be accompanied by environmental standards and consultation with communities where facilities are located.

To measure progress, the 10 billion target must be complemented by delivery indicators. Volumes supplied to the power system, industry and households will show whether growth benefits the economy. Data on flaring, maintenance and project delays will clarify production quality. Prices paid by power stations and the reliability of their supplies will also need monitoring.

Gas can accelerate Nigerian industrialisation, but its potential depends on coherence between extraction, transport, consumption and exports. The 2030 objective will be credible only if completed pipelines translate into regular deliveries. The resource is there; the test will be building a system that turns it into useful energy, jobs and local added value.