The Karibib lithium project in Namibia must revise its economic and technical parameters before it can move from studies to construction. African Critical Elements (ACE), which has just taken control of the project, plans to update the financial and operational plans developed by its previous owner, Lepidico.
The definitive feasibility study published in 2020 envisaged annual production of 4,900 tonnes of lithium hydroxide, along with by-products containing cesium and rubidium. Initial investment was then estimated at $139 million and net present value at $221 million. These indicators rely on old assumptions; they must be reassessed against current costs, prices and market conditions.
A change in ownership and strategy
ACE completed the acquisition of Lepidico Canada, which held 80% of the project. The company says approximately £13 million, or nearly $17 million, has been invested at Karibib over the past ten years, notably in exploration and optimization. However, it has announced neither the timetable for the next study nor the amount needed to finance the next phase.
The first step envisaged by ACE is to develop a lepidolite concentration plant in Namibia. Lepidolite is a lithium-bearing mica. This choice could allow a phased approach, initially extracting value from the ore as a concentrate before potentially undertaking more extensive processing. However, the company has not specified whether this sequence will replace the hydroxide production plan envisaged in the 2020 study, or how the products would be marketed.
John Wisbey, who heads ACE, aims to bring the project closer to production by updating its operating and financing plans. The next study will need to clarify the processing method, plant costs, energy and water requirements, and transport infrastructure. These factors can significantly change the project’s value and capital requirements.
The lithium market demands renewed discipline
Conditions in the lithium market have changed since the period of sharply rising prices before 2022. Falling prices have put high-cost projects under pressure and made investors more attentive to financing milestones. A partial recovery observed in 2025 does not eliminate volatility: prices can fluctuate with battery demand, new mining capacity and producers’ stockpiling decisions.
Karibib will therefore have to demonstrate its competitiveness under several market scenarios. Updating costs and potential revenue will help determine whether the project can withstand lower prices and whether by-products contribute sufficiently predictable value. Without a timetable, budget or new commercial agreements, the project remains a prospect that must pass further validation stages.
Local value addition remains to be defined
Namibia seeks to develop a mining industry that retains more value locally. Producing concentrate in the country would provide an initial industrial link, but would not be equivalent to manufacturing battery materials. Processing ambitions will need to be assessed against the chosen technology, volumes, energy costs and the availability of buyers.
After six years, ACE’s takeover of the project revives work but does not mean construction has been approved. The indicators to monitor are the updated feasibility study, required financing and development timetable. They will distinguish a strategic reassessment from a firm industrial commitment at Karibib.