West African Resources (WAF) maintains an ambitious target in Burkina Faso: producing between 430,000 and 490,000 ounces of gold in 2026, equivalent to approximately 13.4 to 15.2 tonnes. The target depends on the ramp-up of Kiaka, in its first full year of operation, and continued operations at Sanbrado. It nevertheless faces a concrete constraint: the availability of explosives needed for drilling and blasting.
Data published in early October show that the target remains achievable, but is not assured. In the third quarter, the group produced 127,950 ounces, taking cumulative production since January to 360,857 ounces. To reach the bottom of its annual range, it still needs to produce approximately 69,000 ounces in the final quarter; reaching the top would require nearly 129,000 ounces. The third-quarter performance therefore puts the target within reach, but operational execution and supply remain decisive.
Kiaka scales up
The new Kiaka mine is the main growth driver. In 2026, its first full year after start-up, it is expected to contribute 240,000 to 280,000 ounces. Sanbrado, the group’s established operation, is expected to produce between 190,000 and 210,000 ounces. This distribution gives WAF two complementary production centers, but also makes group performance sensitive to difficulties affecting either of them.
In the third quarter, Kiaka produced 76,030 ounces, while Sanbrado contributed 51,920. Kiaka’s ramp-up is therefore offsetting a less favorable period at Sanbrado. Both sites remain exposed to common mining constraints in Burkina Faso: logistics, consumable availability, energy and access to specialized inputs.
Explosives have a particular role in this chain. They are essential for removing rock layers and accessing ore in open-pit mines. Insufficient supply can slow preparatory work, delay ore availability and complicate processing plant planning. The effect on gold output is not always immediate, as stockpiles, production schedules and different ore sources can cushion the impact. However, a prolonged constraint reduces operational flexibility.
A target dependent on consistent operations
WAF said explosives supply had affected some mining work, particularly at the Toega development and Kiaka. The company diversified its suppliers and the situation improved in the third quarter, but it also noted that access to explosives remained a concern. This distinction matters: the annual target has not been abandoned, but the operational risk has not disappeared.
The quarter’s performance nevertheless provides tangible support for the forecast. At 127,950 ounces, quarterly production exceeds the average pace needed to reach the lower threshold of 430,000 ounces. The group also sold 135,245 ounces during the period at an average price of $4,240 per ounce. These sales must not be confused with quarterly production: they can reflect stock movements and delivery timing.
Progress does not depend solely on the volume mined. Energy costs, consumable prices and royalties linked to the gold price influence profitability. In its early-year guidance, WAF expected all-in sustaining costs below $1,900 per ounce, assuming a gold price of $4,000. A rise in the metal’s price can increase revenue, but can also raise certain royalties calculated under Burkina Faso’s progressive schedule.
An industrial and fiscal issue for the country
WAF’s trajectory matters beyond one company’s results. Burkina Faso holds a 15% stake in the projects concerned and receives royalties, taxes and other contributions from their activities. Sustained production therefore strengthens public revenues and activity around the sites, while delays or rising costs can reduce short-term benefits.
The debate also concerns the country’s ability to secure essential mining inputs while controlling their importation, storage and use. Explosives are sensitive products for public safety reasons, but their availability also determines the continuity of industrial operations. Balancing strict oversight, predictable approvals and site supply is becoming a competitiveness issue for the entire industry.
For communities and local suppliers, stable mining programs also have direct effects: transport contracts, works, services, employment and local purchases. Announced production nevertheless does not automatically generate an equivalent increase in these benefits. The quality of links between mines, Burkinabè businesses and public finances remains an essential determinant of the value retained in the country.
The final quarter will be decisive
The annual result will depend on maintaining a high extraction rate through year-end and absorbing input constraints. Cumulative output of 360,857 ounces after nine months puts WAF in a position to reach at least the bottom of its range if fourth-quarter production continues without major disruption. The top of the target requires a stronger performance, close to the best quarter recorded so far.
Monitoring should therefore cover several indicators: volumes produced at Kiaka and Sanbrado, changes in explosives supply, ore stockpiles, processing costs and confirmation of annual guidance. The central question is not simply whether WAF can approach 15 tonnes, but whether Kiaka’s ramp-up can turn a record year into a lasting base for Burkina Faso’s gold production and mining revenues.