Since fuel subsidies were removed in 2023, transport costs have become a central concern for households and businesses in Nigeria. The government is relying on compressed natural gas (CNG) to reduce vehicle operating costs and make use of a resource the country has in abundance. The next proposed step is ambitious: shifting a growing share of commercial transport to gas, with the possibility of making this transition mandatory.
The economic argument is compelling. CNG can be significantly cheaper to use than gasoline or diesel, making it particularly attractive for taxis, minibuses, buses and delivery vehicles covering long distances every day. However, the price displayed at the pump is insufficient to guarantee actual savings. For a transport operator, the calculation also includes upfront conversion costs, fuel availability, refueling time and equipment maintenance.
A commercial fleet at the heart of the strategy
Commercial vehicles reportedly account for between 55% and 60% of the approximately 12 million vehicles on the country’s roads. Targeting them could therefore allow the program to affect mobility costs and liquid fuel consumption more quickly. Authorities want to move from demonstration to nationwide deployment, supported by states, transport operators and private investors.
Initial results indicate the scale of the task. More than 120,000 vehicles have reportedly already been converted to CNG, while the announced target is to reach one million converted commercial vehicles by 2027. More than 100,000 additional kits are also reported to be in the production pipeline. These figures show a real start, but also highlight the distance still to cover: the target requires conversions to accelerate rapidly alongside infrastructure availability.
Lagos offers a glimpse of this transformation. Since the beginning of 2026, the city’s regulated transport network has stopped accepting new diesel buses. Added vehicles must run on CNG or electricity, while gradual renewal of the existing fleet is underway. This direction can reduce operators’ exposure to diesel prices, but depends on coherent planning of purchases, depots, workshops and refueling stations.
The gas price does not solve everything
Converting a vehicle requires an initial investment that can be difficult for an independent driver or small business to raise. Available estimates put conversion costs at between 900,000 and 1.6 million naira, depending on the vehicle and equipment. Even if fuel expenditure falls afterward, recovering this upfront investment depends on how intensively the vehicle is used and on regular access to CNG.
This calculation becomes fragile when refueling is uncertain. In areas with few stations or supply interruptions, queues and detours can absorb part of the savings. For a driver earning a living per trip, several idle hours have a direct cost: fewer journeys, less revenue and a reduced ability to repay a conversion loan. A technology that is cheaper at the pump is therefore economically attractive only if it is available when the vehicle needs it.
Financing is thus inseparable from network development. Credit or installment payment mechanisms can lower the initial barrier, but lenders need sufficiently predictable revenues to assess risk. Consistent supply and station density then become conditions for bankability as well as convenience for users.
Building infrastructure alongside demand
The government plans a substantial expansion in refueling capacity: a thousand stations are targeted over time, with mother and daughter station projects already included in financing programs. Delivering these ambitions will nevertheless depend on coordination between gas production, transport, storage and distribution. Large national reserves alone do not guarantee that gas will reach stations in major cities or along key road corridors consistently.
Logistics presents another trade-off. Truck transport can quickly serve sites far from pipelines, but becomes more expensive as volumes and distances increase. Pipeline networks provide more continuous supply, at the cost of substantial investment and longer lead times. A national strategy will probably need to combine these solutions, prioritizing demand centers and routes where buses, taxis and freight vehicles can concentrate volumes.
Safety must advance at the same pace. CNG is stored under pressure, and vehicle installations require certified cylinders, suitable kits, trained technicians and periodic inspections. Public concerns will not disappear through communications campaigns alone: they require enforced certification rules, easily identifiable accredited workshops and credible oversight. Conversion quality determines drivers’ confidence and the reputation of the entire program.
A transport policy to assess through its results
To succeed, Nigeria must measure more than the number of vehicles converted or stations announced. Decisive indicators will include CNG availability, waiting times, total operating costs, savings actually passed on to passengers and the frequency of incidents or vehicle downtime. They will also make it possible to compare results between states and adjust assistance to operators’ needs.
The challenge goes beyond choosing between gasoline, diesel and gas. The program can reduce certain transport expenses and create a domestic outlet for gas production, provided the entire chain is organized around users’ needs. If conversions advance faster than stations, adoption may lose momentum. If infrastructure, financing and safety advance together, CNG could become a tangible cost-control tool for Nigeria’s commercial fleets.