More than 260 companies and trade organizations are asking the European Commission to maintain binding renewable hydrogen targets under the Renewable Energy Directive beyond 2030. ACWA Power and Masdar are among signatories to the October 19 appeal. It comes as the Union prepares regulatory changes and producers fear weaker demand could make some investments harder to finance.
Companies are not requesting a purchase guarantee for every project. They argue clear targets beyond 2030 would help industrial companies decide where to invest in electrolyzers, infrastructure and end uses. Signatories say fifteen projects particularly exposed to rule changes represent more than €30 billion in committed investment. This is the coalition’s estimate of potential risk, not an already-observed loss.
The directive already sets thresholds
The revised European Renewable Energy Directive, RED III, requires renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) to represent at least 42% of hydrogen used in industry from 2030, rising to 60% in 2035. In transport, RFNBOs must contribute at least 1% of energy supplied in 2030. These provisions seek minimum demand for fuels produced from renewable electricity and non-biological materials.
Renewable hydrogen is produced through water electrolysis using renewable electricity, subject to European origin and production criteria. RFNBOs also include certain derivatives, such as synthetic fuels. Hydrogen is already a fertilizer and refining feedstock; the challenge is gradually replacing fossil-based volumes and opening uses difficult to electrify directly.
Signatories want targets to continue beyond 2030. Their request concerns visibility after the first deployment phase. Without a regulatory outlook, industrial companies may defer decisions, particularly where facilities need renewable power contracts, dedicated networks and multiyear sales agreements.
Announced investment, demand still to consolidate
The Hydrogen Council says more than €15 billion has been committed in Europe for hydrogen end-use applications and more than 4 GW of electrolysis is under construction. Organizations estimate current targets could generate another €50–60 billion in investment by 2030. This projection assumes supportive conditions and does not prejudge final financing decisions.
The sector still faces a gap between announcements and operational projects. Building an electrolyzer is insufficient: renewable power must be competitively available, production connected to customers or networks, and industries able to absorb volumes. Compression, transport, storage and conversion costs for derivatives such as ammonia or methanol must also be controlled.
Support policy can reduce commercial risk by creating predictable demand, but does not solve every difficulty. Complex rules can delay projects; relaxation without a replacement mechanism can remove potential buyers. Policymakers must balance stable commitments, consumer costs and industry’s ability to produce or import targeted volumes.
ACWA Power and Masdar also seek markets
ACWA Power and Masdar’s participation reflects Gulf companies’ interest in Europe’s hydrogen and derivatives market. The groups invest in renewable projects and seek outlets for produced molecules. Predictable European rules can help make projects financeable in several regions, particularly those with abundant solar and wind resources.
This does not mean Europe will automatically become dependent on hydrogen imports. European projects, international supply chains and port or industrial infrastructure must develop together. Delivered cost, renewable-origin certification, transport emissions and terminal availability will determine import competitiveness.
A public policy decision still to come
The letter comes amid debate over supporting hard-to-abate sectors. In steel, chemicals, refining and some transport uses, hydrogen can complement direct electrification. It must nevertheless be prioritized where it offers the most climate and industrial value, given production electricity needs and limited near-term low-carbon volumes.
Europe’s choice is not simply extending or removing a target. Timing, consistency with climate goals, member-state flexibility and results monitoring must be specified. Operators seek lasting visibility; authorities must also ensure support promotes deliverable projects and measurable emissions reductions.
For now, the 260 signatories have made a request without a European decision in response. What follows depends on Commission proposals and member-state and Parliament positions. The debate will determine whether announced investments become operational industrial capacity or await a sufficiently predictable market.