Les exportations de brut du Golfe ont rebondi, sans rétablir l’offre de produits raffinés. L’AIE alerte sur les tensions persistantes du diesel et l’incertitude des marchés jusqu’en 2027.
In early June 2026, the oil market faced one of the largest supply shocks in recent history. The Strait of Hormuz had effectively been blocked for more than three months, while more than 10 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern supply had disappeared from the market, according to estimates reported by Bloomberg at the time. Yet physical Brent had fallen back below $100, far from scenarios envisaging $200 a barrel.
Oil prices reached a five-month high on Monday, October 19, 2026, as traders priced in a further rise in Middle Eastern tensions. Brent was trading above $110 a barrel after gaining nearly 4% on Friday. The increase reflected fears of escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, but did not by itself capture the state of the physical market.
Brent exceeded $100 a barrel on October 7 amid tensions in the Middle East and doubts over the continuity of exports. The market reaction highlights oil’s role in inflation expectations, interest rates and business costs.
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