Mozambique is attracting new capital to liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, but the investment recovery remains closely tied to a few major developments in the basin of the Rovuma. Available figures illustrate this dependence: foreign direct investment reached a record $5.693 billion in 2025, then fell 21% in the first quarter of 2026 to $1.286 billion. Across the first half, it totaled around $1.918 billion, down 24.1% from the same period in 2025.
The quarterly decline does not by itself mean gas projects have lost momentum. It nevertheless shows flows can vary with megaproject spending, construction schedules and financing decisions. Maputo’s economic challenge is now turning concentrated investments into jobs, public revenues, local procurement and lasting productive activity.
Projects advancing at different stages
The northern gas portfolio contains projects at different stages. Mozambique LNG, led by TotalEnergies and partners on the Afungi peninsula, resumed onshore and offshore activities in January 2026 after force majeure declared in 2021 was lifted. Restarting remobilized companies, suppliers and workers, but the facility remains under construction and first exports are not immediate.
Offshore, Eni and partners are developing Coral Norte, a floating liquefaction project valued at more than $7 billion. In September, the Mozambican government approved the financing structure intended to mobilize funds and finance national company ENH’s participation. This approval is a financing milestone; it does not mean the unit has begun producing.
The ExxonMobil-led venture’s Rovuma LNG project has also advanced its preparation. In late September, OneSubsea announced a subsea systems contract for the first development phase, awarded by ExxonMobil on behalf of Area 4 partners. A full final investment decision had nevertheless not been announced in the public information reviewed. Signing an equipment contract confirms progress on some preparatory work without replacing a final decision or independently guaranteeing the overall timetable.
Distinguishing restart, approved financing, engineering contracts and final decisions is essential. Capital flows associated with each stage arrive at different times and do not immediately produce the same national economic effects.
Record investment concentrated in extractive industries
The 2025 data show major extractive projects’ importance to foreign capital inflows. Foreign direct investment rose 60.2% to $5.693 billion, mainly driven by hydrocarbons and major projects. In the first quarter of 2026, extractive industries received around $1.209 billion, nearly 94% of the reported quarterly total.
Such concentration can quickly finance major infrastructure and attract international operators. It also exposes national accounts to scheduling risk: postponed construction, deteriorating security or changed financing conditions can alter capital inflows from quarter to quarter.
Authorities’ challenge is to create links between projects and the local economy. This requires national businesses to access subcontracting opportunities, workers to receive transferable training and project infrastructure to improve territorial connectivity too. Local content regulations and Mozambican companies’ ability to meet quality, financing and safety requirements will shape these benefits.
Security remains an economic variable
Cabo Delgado projects are located in a region facing insecurity. Restarting construction does not remove this risk: it requires protection arrangements, coordination with authorities and sufficient confidence to mobilize staff and suppliers. Deteriorating security can raise costs, slow work or delay public revenues.
The sector also faces long-term infrastructure and financing needs. LNG projects require substantial investment before initial exports. Capital announcements and construction contracts therefore precede expected gas sales revenues by several years. Public budgets must plan without treating revenues dependent on commissioning and actual export volumes as already secured.
Accelerating several projects simultaneously can create strong demand for skilled workers, housing, transport and services in the north. Without planning, these needs can increase costs, intensify local pressures and limit benefits felt by nearby communities.
Turning investment into economic capacity
Recent milestones confirm Mozambique’s central place in international gas strategy: resumed Mozambique LNG activity, structured financing for Coral Norte and preparatory Rovuma LNG contracts. Investment statistics nevertheless show that momentum has not yet automatically diversified activity.
Sector performance will therefore be measured by more than announced amounts. Indicators include actual construction progress, local contract content, training and employment, the state’s revenue share and activity created outside hydrocarbons. Port, road and energy infrastructure can support wider sectors if designed and accessible beyond gas facilities.
The first-half 2026 decline therefore requires a nuanced interpretation. It follows a record year in an industry with inherently irregular spending. It is insufficient to establish a reversal, but highlights vulnerability where flows depend on a small number of projects. Mozambique’s next step will be ensuring gas also stimulates a broader economic base capable of sustaining investment and employment once construction phases end.