Africa’s mining debate is gradually shifting from extraction toward the ability to process, manufacture and sell more products on the continent. The World Bank intends to support governments seeking to turn resources into local industrial value chains. Announced in Bangkok around national partnerships called “Compacts,” the initiative includes four African countries in an initial group of eight participants. It is intended to provide a common framework for governments, the institution and private investors.
The signal is important, but does not yet guarantee factories, financing or economic benefits. The Compacts describe reforms, infrastructure and skills required for each national pathway. Their reach will depend on financed projects, available energy, access to ore and local companies’ ability to serve markets. This is how the promise of processing will be judged.
An increase in scale still to be confirmed
World Bank President Ajay Banga has set a goal of increasing the Group’s critical minerals activity fivefold over five years. The metals and minerals program targets $19 billion over fiscal years 2026 to 2030, combining the institution’s own financing with private capital mobilized. Twenty countries are reportedly being considered as potential partners, without a detailed geographic breakdown at this stage.
These announcements create a framework, not an allocation reserved for each country. Africa’s challenge is to secure a share of these resources and direct it toward segments that increase local value added. Mining finance can increase output without creating industrial capacity. Conversely, a plant will be viable only with competitively priced ore, reliable electricity, water, transport and markets. Roadmaps must link these constraints.
Zambia wants to move from copper to equipment
In Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, the aim is to broaden an existing manufacturing base. The country wants to expand wire and cable production, followed by electrical equipment such as transformers and distribution boards. Regional grid demand could provide a market, provided manufacturers deliver consistent, certified products. Growth in cable manufacturing capacity is targeted by 2029.
The first obstacle is utilization of existing facilities. Zambian wire and cable producers reportedly operate at 30% to 50% of capacity. This gap shows that building factories is not enough: copper supply at stable prices, inventory financing, better credit access and fewer power interruptions are needed. Support for training and local suppliers can help, but competitiveness will also depend on logistics costs and final demand in neighboring countries.
Mauritanian iron and ambitions to move up the value chain
Mauritania approaches this stage from a sector centered on the Société nationale industrielle et minière (SNIM). In 2023, the company represented 9% of GDP and 37% of the country’s export value. Nouakchott targets annual production of ten million tonnes of pellets in 2035, followed by a hot-briquetted direct-reduced iron facility in 2040. These products are closer to steelmakers’ requirements than raw ore.
Observed market price differences can make processing attractive: in 2025, pellets sold for an average $134 a tonne, versus $91.6 for fines. These averages do not establish a plant’s net profit, however. Processing, energy, water, transport and financing costs must be deducted. Markets must also be specified, since industrial capacity without purchase contracts could become an underutilized asset.
Work on energy, mining infrastructure and skills, particularly through the DREAM project and preparatory work with SNIM, may create favorable conditions. The Compact can bring coherence to these efforts. It is not an announcement of direct financing for the envisaged facilities: this distinction will be essential when assessing progress.
Building an entire ecosystem in Malawi
Malawi starts from a different position. Mining represents less than 1% of its economy, while graphite, rutile, rare earths and niobium projects could expand production. The government wants to link mine development with processing and local businesses capable of supplying goods and services. It plans to clarify by 2027 processing requirements applicable to certain minerals before export.
This ambition faces shortages of geological data, regulatory capacity and financing. A World Bank project of around $70 million is being prepared to improve subsurface knowledge, permit management and the state’s negotiating skills. Malawi also targets increasing local mining procurement from less than 5% to 15% in 2030. Achieving this requires preparing SMEs, ensuring service quality and structuring market access.
Execution will be the test
The World Bank presents its work as a way to attract private capital while public budgets are constrained and demand for jobs rises. Ajay Banga referred to 1.2 billion young people entering the labor market over the next ten to fifteen years, compared with around 400 million expected jobs. Local mining industries alone will not close this gap, but can support industrial, technical and logistics jobs more diverse than extraction.
For African countries, the central question is the quality of commitments: which projects have a timetable, identified financing, an energy supply and commercial contracts? What jobs and local procurement will be measured? Compacts provide a useful coordination tool, but credibility will depend on published, comparable results. Success will be measured less by partnerships announced than by the share of ore processed, local business productivity and sustainable income retained in the economies concerned.