The Volobe Amont hydropower project has reached an important institutional milestone. On September 30, the Malagasy state and the project’s partners signed an agreement in Antananarivo formalizing six measures intended to optimize delivery conditions. This progress brings a strategic energy project for Madagascar back to the forefront, but it represents neither financial close nor the start of construction. Further progress will depend on converting these commitments into enforceable contracts, financing and a schedule.
Developed in the Atsinanana region on the Ivondro River, Volobe is intended to increase the country’s electricity supply. In a system where load shedding, generation costs and the public operator’s financial fragility affect households and businesses alike, new hydropower capacity could meet several needs at once: generate more electricity, reduce dependence on thermal plants and improve energy availability for economic activity.
An agreement to make the project more achievable
The September 30 signing concludes consultations launched at a roundtable in August and continued through technical and institutional workshops. According to the Compagnie générale d’hydroélectricité de Volobe (CGHV), the six measures were examined by stakeholders and formalized within a common framework. The announcement therefore confirms closer alignment between the state, shareholders and project partners after several years of preparation and discussions about the investment’s economic conditions.
The detailed content of each measure was not fully disclosed in the announcement. It is therefore premature to conclude that all commercial, tax, financial or infrastructure issues have been definitively resolved. The term “optimization” mainly indicates a desire to make the project more sustainable and better coordinated. The question will be which measures are included in final agreements, with what financial commitments and what allocation of risks between public authorities and private partners.
This distinction matters. Major electricity projects can advance institutionally without yet being bankable. Lenders need a predictable framework: controlled total costs, credible power sales contracts, robust payment mechanisms, suitable guarantees and a sufficiently clear construction schedule. Until these elements are consolidated, announcing an agreement does not guarantee funds will be disbursed or contractors will enter the site.
The challenge extends beyond generating megawatts
Volobe can only have a national impact if its electricity can be transported to major consumption centers and integrated into the grid. The project therefore also involves lines, substations and connections. Madagascar’s National Assembly indicated in July that tenders were continuing for various packages, including civil works, transmission infrastructure and electromechanical equipment. The schedule presented at that time envisaged major construction starting in 2027 and lasting approximately four years.
These stages make coordination decisive. A completed power plant without sufficient transmission capacity would not deliver its full value to the system. Conversely, grid infrastructure must be sized and sequenced alongside the plant to avoid delays and cost overruns. Delivering Volobe therefore depends on a complete chain, from access infrastructure and hydraulic works to connection and energy purchases.
The price of this electricity will be equally central. For investors, the tariff must cover construction, operation and financing costs. For the state and operator JIRAMA, it must remain compatible with the system’s ability to pay and the goal of making electricity accessible. A poorly calibrated contract can shift the problem: increasing generation while adding to the public buyer’s burden, or reducing profitability enough to deter financiers. The six measures will notably have to be assessed against this balance.
A test of governance and local benefits
The project’s success will also be measured by how its benefits and costs are distributed. Consultations with communities in the area, information on impacts and consideration of local activities must accompany preparation for construction. For infrastructure located in a river basin, land, environmental and social issues are not peripheral: they influence trust, approvals and construction continuity.
Local economic benefits are another concrete criterion. Works contracts, services, logistics and training can create opportunities for Malagasy businesses and workers, provided quality, safety and schedule requirements are anticipated. Publishing clear local procurement rules and monitoring commitments would help turn a national project into a driver of skills, rather than simply infrastructure built by external contractors.
For Madagascar, Volobe is thus more than a new power plant. The project tests the country’s ability to assemble a long-term public-private partnership, secure financing for major assets and reform electricity purchasing and distribution conditions. Signing the agreement signals progress; credibility will now depend on final documents, mobilizing funds, awarding contracts and meeting the announced schedule.
The next milestone to watch is therefore the transition from the political framework to execution: publication of agreed parameters, financial close, finalization of electricity contracts and the actual launch of preparatory works. If these stages follow one another, Volobe could help ease a constraint that has held back Madagascar’s economy for years. If they drag on, the agreement will remain a consultation milestone with no immediate impact on consumers. The potential is substantial; results will be measured by electricity actually delivered to the grid.