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Oil shock: why a barrel did not reach $200 in June 2026

In early June 2026, the oil market faced one of the largest supply shocks in recent history. The Strait of Hormuz had effectively been blocked for more than three months, while more than 10 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern supply had disappeared from the market, according to estimates reported by Bloomberg at the time. Yet physical Brent had fallen back below $100, far from scenarios envisaging $200 a barrel.

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Oil: Dangote refinery accelerates the shift in the global refining map

The Middle Eastern crisis brings renewed attention to a question often overshadowed by crude oil volumes: where is the capacity to turn crude into usable fuels? Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has become an important international supplier as supply and trade-flow disruptions tighten petroleum-product markets. Its role suggests Africa can help diversify refining geography, but the continent’s expansion projects remain exposed to supply, financing and execution obstacles.

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