Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecasts, increasing its end-2026 estimate to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average to $15,400. The revision, announced on October 20, reflects weaker-than-expected mine supply and tighter availability outside the United States, according to the bank. The signal is bullish, but is neither a guaranteed price nor a consensus forecast: other indicators describe a global refined copper market that could remain in surplus.
Another upward revision
The bank increased its end-2026 target from $13,735 to $14,700 per tonne. For 2027, its expected average rises from $13,800 to $15,400. These two values are not directly comparable: the first is an expected year-end level, the second a twelve-month average. They nevertheless reflect a more bullish assessment of short-term supply tightness.
On October 20, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange traded around $14,339 per tonne during early Asian trading. Goldman’s end-2026 target was therefore close to the price then observed, while its 2027 average implied a higher level. However, a single-point comparison cannot assess the accuracy of an annual average: the market can experience sharp rises and falls before arriving at its average price.
The bank estimates that the supply deficit in markets outside the United States could reach 950,000 tonnes in 2026, then 220,000 tonnes in 2027. This geography is decisive. Copper accumulating in the United States ahead of possible tariffs is not necessarily available to consumers in Asia, Europe or Africa. Inventories can therefore increase in the United States while access to metal tightens elsewhere.
US inventories redirect trade flows
Advance purchases in the United States reflect uncertainty over tariffs applicable to refined copper. The prospect of a trade measure encourages operators to ship metal to the US market, where inventories tracked against futures contracts have risen sharply. This concentration alters delivery arbitrage and can create regional price differences.
Developments in China reinforce this tightness. A shortage of recovered copper, or copper scrap, is reportedly pushing some users toward greater use of refined metal. Demand therefore depends not only on industrial activity, but also on the availability and price of secondary materials. If scrap is insufficient or difficult to source, smelters and processors can turn to new cathodes, increasing pressure on the refined market.
This combination helps explain why Goldman can anticipate a deficit outside the United States while US inventories grow. It does not mean copper is scarce everywhere at the same time. Inventory location, the ability to move it and commercial conditions matter as much as total warehouse holdings.
An important counterpoint: the ICSG sees a global surplus
Goldman’s forecast must be considered alongside that of the International Copper Study Group. In its outlook published on October 14, the organization anticipates a global refined copper surplus of approximately 104,000 tonnes in 2026, potentially widening to 368,000 tonnes in 2027. The two assessments cover different scopes: Goldman emphasizes the regional balance outside the United States, while the ICSG assesses the global refined copper balance.
A global surplus can coexist with local tightness if inventories are concentrated, trade flows slow or consumers cannot easily access metal available elsewhere. But the ICSG forecast is a reminder that rising prices do not automatically result from a worldwide shortage. Production adjustments, recycling, industrial demand and trade decisions can alter the balance over coming quarters.
For investors and producers, the distinction between mined and refined copper is also essential. Mine supply is one stage in the chain; concentrates must then be processed, transported and converted into usable metal. Difficulties at mines can coexist with rising refined production if new capacity enters service or inventories are released.
What this outlook means for African producers
African copper-producing countries have an interest in following these developments without basing planning on a single price target. A high price can improve export earnings and support investment decisions, but does not guarantee every project’s profitability. Energy and transport costs, ore grade, equipment availability, financing terms and stable tax rules all affect margins.
Price volatility also creates a fiscal challenge. Revenue based on persistently high assumptions can weaken public finances if the market turns. Governments and companies must therefore test several scenarios, including a global surplus, rather than base decisions solely on the most favorable case.
For Africa, the strategic question goes beyond the price level: it concerns the share of value captured locally. Processing, component production and supply to regional industries can strengthen economic benefits, provided energy, infrastructure and skills keep pace. A tight market can improve producers’ bargaining power, but lasting activities depend on investment and contracts capable of withstanding cycles.
Goldman Sachs’s revision is therefore an indicator of regional tightness and trade flow risks. The ICSG forecast provides a global counterweight. Their coexistence shows why the copper market must be read by region, product form and time horizon. For African participants, the most robust scenario remains one that accounts for both temporarily constrained supply and a possible global surplus.