Africa will need to mobilise around $125 billion for oil refining by 2050, according to OPEC projections presented at African Energy Week 2026. This includes new capacity, maintenance investment and adaptations to meet petroleum product demand expected to grow with population and economic activity. The figure highlights the scale of need and the difficulty of converting it into profitable projects in a sector exposed to prices, standards and import competition.
The continent has crude resources but exports a substantial share of production for refining abroad. This deprives producing countries of some industrial activities, jobs and processing margins. Developing local refining can reduce dependence and strengthen supply security. Refineries are nevertheless not automatic solutions: they must secure crude, finance costly operations and sell competitive products in often integrated markets.
Growing demand and underused capacity
OPEC forecasts indicate African liquid product demand could rise from 4.9 million barrels per day to 9.2 million by 2050. Refining capacity is expected to increase by around 3.2 million barrels per day to nearly 7.9 million. These figures outline an expanding market, but installed capacity does not always reach its potential. Average utilisation cited in the projections is around 55%, reflecting supply, maintenance, operating and profitability difficulties.
The challenge therefore concerns upgrading assets as much as building new units. A refinery can show substantial capacity on paper while producing far less if crude access is irregular, technical shutdowns multiply or equipment does not match available oil quality. Investment must include supply logistics, conversion units, storage and dispatch facilities.
New refineries can also reduce import costs and improve some products' availability. But pump-price effects will depend on international prices, taxes, exchange rates and domestic market structure. Energy sovereignty is not measured solely by a factory's presence: supply chains must function, countries must access needed products and households must experience measurable gains.
Financing, contracts and economies of scale
The $125 billion requires substantial contributions from private capital, development banks and public investors. Projects will need long-term supply contracts, payment guarantees and visibility over sales volumes. In several countries, public companies alone lack the balance sheets to finance large units; partnerships and risk-sharing mechanisms will therefore be decisive.
Regional integration can improve economic viability. A facility serving several markets can achieve greater scale and secure more outlets than a refinery limited to one country's demand. This nevertheless requires reliable transport corridors, compatible standards, predictable customs rules and trade agreements allowing product movement. Without regional coordination, capacity may compete and operate at insufficient utilisation.
Margins are also essential. A refinery must compete with imports potentially originating from very large, efficient facilities. Local asset development will be stronger when based on a real advantage: consumer proximity, standards-compliant quality, crude access, production flexibility or petrochemical integration. Profitability analysis must also include spending to reduce emissions and treat residues.
Reconciling access, industry and transition
OPEC links its forecasts to substantial population and economic growth. Africa's population is expected to increase by around 917 million by 2050, while average real GDP growth is estimated at 4.4% in the scenario presented. This expansion will increase transport, logistics and industrial production needs. Refined products will therefore continue playing a role in several economies even as electrification and alternative fuels advance.
Energy needs differ among countries and sectors. Some markets prioritise reliable diesel and gasoline supply; others need facilities providing aviation fuel, LPG, petrochemical feedstocks or products meeting stricter standards. Investment must therefore avoid a single approach and draw on local and regional demand assessments.
Local refining can support industrial transformation if plans include skilled jobs, training, local suppliers and regular energy access. It will not eliminate energy poverty on its own: OPEC notes that hundreds of millions remain without clean cooking access in its projections. Investment choices must therefore form part of a wider policy of energy availability and affordability.
The announced $125 billion measures future needs. Mobilisation will depend on project discipline, regional cooperation and the ability to ensure sustainable facility operation. Governments' objective is not to maximise announced capacity, but to create assets that produce regularly, meet market needs and retain more value on the continent.