Nigeria now has refining capacity that fundamentally changes its oil market equation. Yet commissioning Dangote’s facility has not ended overseas fuel purchases. In August 2026, gasoline imports still amounted to 14.6 million liters per day, while local refineries delivered 35.9 million. Domestic production therefore covers a dominant share of supplies, but nearly three in every ten liters consumed remain linked to imported cargoes.
This coexistence is more than a statistical paradox. It shows that supply security is not simply a matter of installed capacity. Products must also be available at the right time, in the right place and at a competitive price. Nigeria’s market remains vast, heavily dependent on gasoline and exposed to changes in logistics, international prices and exchange rates. A refinery can reshape the national balance without instantly rendering importers, depots and distribution channels built over decades unnecessary.
August’s figures nevertheless clearly indicate the transition underway. Local supplies reached 35.9 million liters per day, compared with 25.8 million in July. Meanwhile, daily imports declined from 19.7 million to 14.6 million liters. Total supply stood at 50.5 million liters per day. The shift is therefore significant: domestic production has taken first place, while imports increasingly provide supplementation and adjustment.
Why gasoline imports persist
The external bill remains significant, however. In the second quarter, overseas gasoline purchases cost 952.15 billion naira, or approximately €630 million. This amount, nearly eleven times the first-quarter figure, primarily reflects higher international prices rather than a surge in volumes. Import value can therefore remain high even as quantities decline. For Abuja, measuring success solely through imported tonnage would provide an incomplete picture: the foreign currency bill, supply consistency and pump prices matter equally.
Debate has shifted toward market rules. An Abuja federal court ordered the regulator to continue issuing or renewing import authorizations for three distributors, ruling that refusal would contravene the legal framework. For the fourth quarter, the regulator also authorized six companies to import up to 830,000 metric tons of gasoline to prevent potential pressure. This decision does not mean the local refining model has failed. Rather, it highlights the authorities’ desire to retain a safety margin as domestic supply and distribution networks reorganize.
Competition is the central question. Restricting imports too quickly could make an excessive share of supplies dependent on one supplier. Conversely, maintaining abundant foreign cargoes while a local refinery increases output can limit Nigerian producers’ markets and prolong foreign currency outflows. Distributors defend the freedom to choose suppliers according to prices and delivery terms. Advocates of domestic priority argue that licenses should only be used when local supply is insufficient.
This dilemma cannot be resolved through a binary choice between openness and protection. Nigeria needs a transparent mechanism publishing inventories, production volumes, authorized imports and regional requirements. Predictable rules would allow refiners to invest, distributors to plan and the regulator to trigger imports when indicators reveal a genuine risk. Such an approach would reduce uncertainty without sacrificing service continuity.
Refining capacity and supply diversification
Dangote’s capacity, estimated at approximately 700,000 barrels per day, provides an unprecedented foundation. But concentrating supply around a major player also requires safeguards: equitable infrastructure access, published wholesale prices, transparent delivery contracts and a recourse mechanism for distributors. A sustained restart of public refineries and expansion by other private operators would provide stronger competition. Nominal capacity alone does not guarantee constant availability: maintenance, crude supplies, logistics and working-capital financing determine actual delivered volumes.
For consumers, the decisive measure will be price stability and fewer shortages, not simply falling import statistics. For the state, the challenge is turning local refining into foreign currency savings and jobs while preventing a dominant position from producing less favorable prices. For industry, predictable products and tariffs underpin transport, agriculture and electricity generation.
Nigeria has therefore reached a major milestone, but oil sovereignty is built across several links. The refinery has shifted supply’s center of gravity. The next stage will be building a market where domestic capacity, backup imports and distribution operate under clear rules. Imports are already genuinely declining; the durability of that decline will depend on this competitive and logistical architecture.