Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) is preparing to start up a gasoline production unit at Sirte Oil Company. The October 12 announcement referred to final preparations and a targeted start-up within the week. As of October 19, neither processing capacity nor detailed technical confirmation had been published. The facility could increase local supply, but its effect on imports cannot yet be quantified.
An addition to a system dependent on imports
The new unit is part of NOC’s efforts to strengthen domestic fuel production. Estimates cited by Kpler put Libyan road-fuel demand at up to 250,000 barrels per day in 2026, including 90,000 to 100,000 barrels per day of gasoline. Refined product imports reportedly exceed 150,000 barrels per day. These figures describe a large market relative to a facility whose throughput has not been disclosed.
The difficulties are being felt on the ground. Queues have been reported in Tripoli and Misrata, while Sebha in the south reintroduced a barcode system to organize access to filling stations after several days without deliveries. Available information indicates daily gasoline consumption of between six million and eight million liters, with peaks of around 11 million. Demand varies over time and according to supply conditions.
An additional production unit can ease pressure on local stocks if it operates consistently and its product meets market specifications. However, the lack of data on capacity, yields, feedstocks and utilization prevents any estimate of the volume of fuel that could replace imports. Commissioning does not mean continuous production at full load either.
Refining ambitions extend beyond this unit
In January, NOC announced a target to increase national refining capacity from 380,000 to 660,000 barrels per day. Actual throughput, however, is reportedly close to 180,000 barrels per day. The gap between nameplate capacity and effective production is a reminder that available equipment is not enough: plant condition, maintenance, crude supply and operating constraints determine actual throughput.
The Ras Lanuf refinery illustrates the difficulty of bringing assets back into service. NOC regained full control of it in May, following a prolonged shutdown dating back to 2013. Its head discussed a restart within six to twelve months, subject to around $60 million in maintenance. Its nameplate capacity of 220,000 barrels per day represents substantial potential, but not immediately available production.
The national company is targeting gasoline self-sufficiency by 2037 and diesel self-sufficiency by 2034. These timeframes require upgrades to several facilities, sustained investment and lasting logistical improvements. The Sirte unit is therefore one step in a broader strategy whose results will depend on effective operation of existing assets.
Measuring the impact on shortages and costs
Several details still need to be published to assess this new capacity: planned daily output, start-up and ramp-up dates, product specifications and the share intended for the domestic market. NOC will also need to clarify planned outages and arrangements for supplying the unit. Without this information, import-reduction announcements remain difficult to compare with national demand.
Security of supply also depends on distribution. Delivery restrictions, depot stockouts, transport delays and fuel diversion can interrupt availability even when fuel is refined domestically. Efforts to combat smuggling, checks at transfer points and greater transparency over flows therefore remain complementary to increased production.
Start-up still to be confirmed
NOC had announced that the unit would be ready for commissioning during the week of October 12. In the absence of more detailed public confirmation at the time of writing, the targeted timetable must be distinguished from an actual, stable start-up. The next step will be to publish operating data and observe whether volumes reach the filling stations concerned.
If the unit operates as planned, it could provide additional supply during a period of strain and offer useful operating experience for other facilities. Its contribution will nevertheless need to be assessed against a large market, persistent dependence on imported products and the still-unused capacity of Libyan refineries. The credibility of the national program will depend on consistent, measurable results communicated precisely.