Global energy demand could grow by 20% between 2024 and 2055, from 641 to 768 exajoules, according to Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) projections presented at African Energy Week 2026. The organisation expects gas and renewables to contribute a substantial share of this growth. This outlook comes as governments seek to meet rising consumption, electricity needs and emissions reduction targets.
The scenario outlines a gradual transformation of energy systems, but does not imply fossil fuel demand will disappear rapidly. Emerging economies in particular still need dispatchable generation capacity, stronger grids and industrial fuels. GECF anticipates a growing role for gas in electricity, but necessary investment will depend on national policies, infrastructure availability and capital costs.
Demand shaped by electricity
According to the projections, gas's share of electricity generation should rise over the decades from around 35% in 2024 to nearly 39% in 2055. This reflects gas's potential role in balancing systems where intermittent renewables become more important. Gas plants can provide flexible generation, provided they have reliable supply and a grid capable of delivering electricity to consumers.
Electricity's growing economic role also affects transport, buildings and digital activities. Urbanisation, data centres and industrialisation increase capacity and grid stability requirements. Developments will depend on energy efficiency, storage, interconnections and investment in renewable sources. Global prospects therefore do not translate identically across regions.
GECF also projects changes in gas production uses. Production intended for markets not yet connected to networks is expected to represent a substantial share of total output by 2055. Transport, export infrastructure and liquefaction facilities will contribute to international trade, but domestic markets will need appropriate networks and supply contracts.
Africa faces infrastructure financing needs
For Africa, the central issue is moving from resources to functioning energy systems. GECF estimates around $1 trillion must be invested in Africa's gas chain over the next thirty years. This covers exploration and production, but also pipelines, processing, distribution, power plants and storage. Without these components, reserves cannot efficiently supply electricity and industry.
Anticipated African gas demand growth is linked to practical needs: generating electricity, supplying factories, producing fertilisers and improving clean cooking access. An exclusively export-focused strategy risks leaving local markets under-equipped. Conversely, export revenues can help finance domestic networks and services if sharing mechanisms and investments are planned from project design.
Regional projects can reduce costs and spread risks. A cross-border pipeline or shared electricity infrastructure can serve several countries, expand markets and improve supply security. Implementation nevertheless requires agreements on transit tariffs, gas quality, offtake contracts, payments and operation. Financing must also account for currency risks and buyers' ability to meet commitments.
Projections do not replace public choices
GECF's outlook is a long-term scenario, not a guaranteed forecast. Actual trajectories will depend on prices, climate policies, technological innovation and government decisions. Estimates should therefore indicate possible needs rather than certainty about future consumption or production levels.
States must balance energy security, affordability, job creation and emissions reductions. This means choosing projects suited to available resources and expected uses rather than pursuing production volumes without identified markets. Rigorous economic assessments, impact studies and transparent cost information are necessary to limit underused-asset risks.
Africa's opportunity lies in connecting projected demand with reliable supply and industrial benefits. Gas production can support electricity networks and industries, but must be accompanied by sound contracts, infrastructure investment and revenue governance. Financing needs announced at AEW show that gas discussions can no longer focus solely on resources: they must address market architecture and implementation.