As COP31 approaches, scheduled for November in Turkey, the figures underscore the scale of the climate challenge: renewables are expanding rapidly, but oil, gas and coal remain central to the energy system. Nearly 200 countries committed at COP28 to begin a transition away from fossil fuels. Since then, fossil energy production and consumption have continued to rise, while solar and wind capacity has expanded at a sustained pace.<\/p>\n
This does not mean the transition has stalled. Rather, it reveals a two-speed process: electricity is decarbonizing faster than other uses, while transport, industry, heating and raw material production remain heavily dependent on hydrocarbons and coal. The central question for governments is now how to turn clean energy growth into an actual decline in fossil fuel demand.<\/p>\n
According to the Energy Institute\u2019s global review, energy supply increased by 1.7% in 2025 and fossil fuels still accounted for 86% of the total. The International Energy Agency, using a different scope and reference year, estimated their share at 81% of the energy mix in 2024. These measures are not directly interchangeable, but describe the same reality: the global system remains largely built around fossil resources.<\/p>\n
National situations vary considerably. Oil and gas play a major role in the United States\u2019 energy mix, while coal remains dominant in China. France stands out for its substantial nuclear share, whereas Germany retains greater dependence on oil, gas and coal. These differences show that there is no single pathway: energy choices reflect available resources, industrial structures, grids and public policy decisions.<\/p>\n
Growing renewable capacity accompanies global energy demand that continues to rise. In 2025, total energy demand increased by 1.3%, according to the IEA. Solar made the largest contribution to this growth, but gas and oil also increased. Renewable expansion therefore meets some additional demand without automatically replacing existing sources.<\/p>\n
Solar\u2019s progress is particularly visible in electricity. Global solar generation increased by 28% in 2025 and accounted for more than 8% of electricity generation. Wind and solar are gaining market share, supported by falling costs, public policy and increasing investment. In several regions, new renewable capacity has also helped limit coal-fired generation.<\/p>\n
However, electricity accounts for only a fraction of the energy economies consume. It represents approximately one quarter of global final consumption. Much demand still depends on transport fuels, gas for heat and industrial processes, or coal in steelmaking and other heavy industries. Even as electricity becomes cleaner, decarbonizing vehicles, buildings and factories requires additional equipment, grids and investment.<\/p>\n
This distinction explains why solar growth has not yet generated an equivalent decline in oil and gas production. Fossil fuels serve functions beyond electricity generation: fuels, petrochemical inputs, industrial heat and uses that are difficult to electrify. Climate policies must therefore combine renewable expansion with energy efficiency, grids, storage and gradual replacement of fossil-fuel equipment.<\/p>\n
Demand outlooks differ according to the assumptions used. In its scenario based on current policies, the IEA expects coal demand to begin declining before the end of the decade, while oil and gas demand continues to grow through 2050. This is a conditional scenario, not a certain prediction: its outcome depends on changes in policies, technologies, prices and investment.<\/p>\n
This projection highlights the risk of an incomplete transition. Climate commitments can coexist with new fossil projects if governments anticipate persistent demand or seek to secure supply. Businesses, meanwhile, invest according to expected profitability and regulatory stability. If renewable electricity is not continuously available or infrastructure is lacking, replacement of gas and oil can be delayed, particularly in hard-to-decarbonize sectors.<\/p>\n
Energy security intensifies this tension. Price crises and trade disruptions encourage states to diversify supply and develop domestic resources. Renewables can reduce exposure to imports, but require stronger grids, storage capacity and flexibility solutions. Hydrocarbons retain a role in short-term trade-offs even when governments express long-term decarbonization ambitions.<\/p>\n
At COP31, negotiations are expected to focus as much on ways to accelerate electrification as on setting targets. Moving away from fossil fuels remains politically sensitive following COP30 debates, where the issue was not included in the final conclusions. Climate diplomacy must therefore seek compromises on grids, energy efficiency, transport, buildings and industry.<\/p>\n
For producing countries, particularly in Africa, the challenge is twofold. Oil and gas revenues contribute to public budgets and investment; at the same time, global demand is changing and energy projects must better support electricity access, industrialization and local value creation. A just transition means accounting for development needs while assessing long-term dependence risks and diversification opportunities.<\/p>\n
The global pathway therefore cannot be reduced to a choice between fossil fuels and renewables. It depends on how quickly alternatives become reliable, affordable and available in sectors where fossil fuels remain difficult to replace. International commitments will set a direction; investment decisions, infrastructure and national policies will determine whether that direction actually reduces the role of oil, gas and coal in economies.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Despite rapid growth in solar and wind, fossil fuels continue to meet most of the world\u2019s energy needs. As COP31 approaches, the gap between climate commitments and actual uses highlights the limits of a transition focused on electricity.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9461,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","page_builder":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25,6,677,3430,676],"tags":[3929,3928,629,32,3647],"class_list":["post-9462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie","category-evenement","category-gaz","category-international","category-petrole","tag-cop31","tag-energies-fossiles","tag-gaz-naturel","tag-petrole","tag-transition-energetique-2"],"yoast_head":"\n