According to Rystad Energy, 2025 promises to be a year of major changes in the energy sector, driven by accelerated decarbonisation and the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI). These upheavals are taking place against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, amplified by the results of the major elections in 2024 and the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump in the United States.<\/p>\n
\"We are moving from a period of energy scarcity to a period of energy abundance,\" says Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy. By 2025, additional fossil fuel and renewable energy capacity should outstrip growth in demand. However, a surplus on the oil market could force OPEC+ to extend its production cuts to stabilise prices.<\/p>\n
Renewable energies will dominate the growth in electricity consumption, accounting for 90% of the increase in 2025. However, the intermittency of these sources is accentuating the pressing need for reliable energy storage solutions, making this year a decisive one for the sector.<\/p>\n
Geopolitics remains a major factor of instability. Under the new Trump administration, Sino-American relations will be in the spotlight, while conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East will continue to shake the world order. At the same time, trade tensions, particularly as a result of the imposition of tariffs, are likely to slow global economic growth.<\/p>\n
On the economic front, inflation and budget deficits are of concern to the major economies, while the slowdown in Chinese growth, exacerbated by a property crisis, could have global repercussions.<\/p>\n
Global upstream investment is expected to decline by 2%, marking a stabilisation after the increases of recent years. However, increases are expected in strategic regions such as Suriname, Mexico and Turkey for deepwater, and Indonesia, Qatar and Russia for offshore.<\/p>\n
The global oil market could face a surplus, with non-OPEC+ supply growth estimated at 1.4 million barrels per day, outstripping demand, which will increase by just one million barrels per day. This dynamic will exert downward pressure on oil prices.<\/p>\n
Refinery margins will remain under pressure due to weak demand, particularly in the first quarter of 2025. The growth of electric vehicles and energy efficiency in China limit the long-term outlook for refineries, while delays in new capacity could lead to shortages in the second half of the year.<\/p>\n
Despite the support shown by the Trump administration, US shale producers remain cautious. Their priority remains shareholder returns and growth through acquisitions rather than a return to expansive production. This pragmatic strategy is a response to oversupply and stagnating well productivity.<\/p>\n
The Trump administration is banking on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to strengthen the United States' energy position. However, a global oversupply could disrupt prices, particularly if trade tensions with China persist. US developers will have to navigate between increasing exports to Europe and managing their relationship with Russia.<\/p>\n
The year 2025 will be decisive for the energy sector, marked by a transition to more sustainable models and a complex geopolitical environment. The decisions taken this year will have a lasting impact on the world's energy future.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Selon le cabinet Rystad Energy, 2025 s\u2019annonce comme une ann\u00e9e d\u2019\u00e9volutions majeures dans le domaine de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, port\u00e9e par une d\u00e9carbonation acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e et l\u2019influence croissante de l\u2019intelligence artificielle…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6397,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","page_builder":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5,8],"tags":[3122,3078],"class_list":["post-6396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualite","category-analyses","tag-analyse","tag-rystad-energy"],"yoast_head":"\n